Here are the results so far for us in week 4! We posted our picks on Saturday here https://www.reddit.com/sportsbook/comments/dajgyj/2019_nfl_week_4_picks/.
It's going great so far. Hopefully we can finish strong with the Steelers -3.5, and Over 45 tonight! Risking 5 units combined (not each) on these picks tonight, so they are some of the more confident plays. Although our biggest picks so far have not done well this week (damn you Dolphins!).
​

Team	Spread	Juice	Units Risked	Units to Win	Result
Panthers	+5	-105	1	0.95	+0.95
Redskins	+3	+100	1	1	-1
Dolphins	+14.5	-107	3	2.8	-3
Colts	-6.5	-115	3	2.61	-3
Lions	+7	-105	2	1.9	+1.9
Bills	+7	-105	1	0.95	+0.95
Titans	+3.5	-105	3	2.86	+2.86
Buccaneers	+9.5	-105	2	1.9	+1.9
Seahawks	-5.5	-101	1	0.99	+0.99
Bears	-1.5	-105	3	2.86	+2.86
Jaguars	+3	-115	1	0.87	+0.87
Saints	+2.5	-102	3	2.94	+2.94
Steelers	-3.5	+103	2	2.06

​

Game	OveUnder	Juice	Units Risked	Units to Win	Result
Panthers/Texans	Under 47.5	-105	1	0.95	+0.95
Redskins/Giants	Under 49	-108	2.5	2.31	+2.31
Chargers/Dolphins	Over 44.5	-108	2	1.85	-2
Raiders/Colts	Over 45.5	-105	1	0.95	+.95
Chiefs/Lions	Under 54.5	-105	1.5	1.43	-1.5
Patriots/Bills	Over 42	-105	1	0.95	-1
Titans/Falcons	Under 46	-105	1	0.95	+0.95
Buccaneers/Rams	Over 49	-106	2	1.89	+1.89
Seahawks/Cardinals	Under 47.5	-105	1.5	1.43	+1.43
Vikings/Bears	Over 38	-105	3	2.86	-3
Jaguars/Broncos	Over 37.5	-107	1	0.93	+0.93
Bengals/Steelers	Over 45	-105	3	2.86

Results - Spread: 9-3 | +9.22 units --- OveUnders: 7-4 | +1.91 units --- Overall: 16-7 | +11.13 units
Our projection model, game write-ups, and picks can be found always free at https://www.scoreprojection.com/.
Also we can be tracked on cappertek, pickmonitor, and NFLPickWatch under the username "ScoreProjection".

Disclaimer: this post isn't meant to be a guide to gamble, just a for-fun picking against vegas' spreads they set on NFL games. I am not telling anyone to lose money.
I'm starting these posts this week just for fun, been picking games for a while and decided to share. I'll be keeping my record throughout the season as well. Any feedback is great and encouraged! I would love to hear others opinions on the picks. The picks will also be given in order of confidence. Also; I don't pick thursday night games seeing as how you can never tell how a team will react to short turnaround between games. Without further ado, here we go! (*=my pick)
*San Diego (-7.5) at Jacksonville: Pretty heavy on the chargers here. Despite the Jags being at home, they haven't stayed within 8 of any team this season, and there's no indicators that they would start against a team that just beat the Colts.
*Denver (-7) at Indianapolis: Irsay just opened a can of worms the Colts want no part of. Manning comes back to Indi with a vengeance and demolishes a Colts team on a short turnaround.
*Chicago (+1) at Washington: RG3 isn't the same. I understand the Bears defense isn't what it once was, but this team will be in the top 8 power rankings by the end of the season barring injury.
*Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-1): One good week doesn't make a consistent team. (don't worry, I'm not picking every road team)
Houston at KC (-6.5)*:I normally don't like taking any game with a QB I haven't seen, but this is an exception. KC's pass rush and overall defense is too much for the struggling Texans.
Cleveland at Green Bay (-10)*: In Green Bay, even without Randall Cobb, the Pack crushes a Browns team that finally woke up and realized they were the Browns a few weeks ago.
New England at New York Jets (+3)*: The Pats have been able to do a lot with so much going wrong for them. With that being said, the loss of Mayo is the last straw. Jets win outright at home.
*Cincinnati at Detroit (-3): Dalton has another good one, without Megatron as a deterrent the Cinci front 7 is able to key off on the run game. Cinci wins outright.
St. Louis at Carolina (-6)*: Just a shot in the dark at this point honestly. Carolina's defense is great, their offense inconsistent. They'll win but I don't know that they cover the spread.
*San Francisco (-4.5) at Tennessee: The 49ers are finally showing up a little this season. With Locker out, the Niners win by a TD.
Tampa Bay at Atlanta (-7.5)*: Both teams are equally awful. I'll take the home team with Matty and Gonzales.
Buffalo at Miami (-7)*: Don't like betting on teams with new QB's, I'll take the Dolphins against the Bills with a QB that got cut from two other teams (Flynn).
*Minnesota at New York Giants (-3.5): Hate this game with Freeman. Here's to hoping AD has a monster day against a subpar defense.
Dallas at Philadelphia (-3)*: HATE trying to pick this game with so many variables. Foles is great in the system against a banged up Cowboys D. On the other side, the Eagles' D hasn't been able to stop a nosebleed, much less an offense that has been on fire. In the end, Murray is out, the 'Boys become one-dimensional, and the Eagles win by 7. This is my LEAST confident pick.
EDIT: Just heard Gronk is coming back for the Pats. Now give me the Pats. Yes, he's worth that many points to that team.

Welp, there it is. We're officially out of football until the "kinda combines" and draft. Hopefully by the time camps and preseason comes around, we start to see glimpses of a post(ish?) Covid-19 landscape - both personally and also in the sportsverse.
I've really tried to put in a lot of work through the season adjusting my thoughts on rookies - on the fly - based on adding to the sample. The reactions and style of my methodology has clear strengths and weaknesses. No better were the weaknesses illustrated than overreacting to JT's abysmal stretch midseason. On the flipside, my "I'm worried about Reagor" (quite earlier than most!) and "The Bell signing is going to crush CEH for at least this year" were valid concerns. And I definitely was one of the earlier guys to start hyping Tee Higgins once he showed some signs. That said - my methodology is mostly a barometer of perceived value, and the combination of an extremely talented 2020 Draft Class as well as a Covid-19 impacted year probably made for a very non-typical year as far as Rookie evaluation goes.
Before the season started, I did a mildly popular [Dynasty 2020 Rookie Stock Watch] (and at the request of the community, I did weekly updates, and will continue doing this next year! In case you missed previous weeks, you can find week 1 here, week 2 here, week 3 here, week 4 here, week 5 here, week 6 here, week 7 here. week 8 here, week 9 here, week 10 here, week 11 here, week 12 here, week 13 here, week 14 here, week 15 here, and week 16 here.
As this is my last "risers and fallers" of the 2020 class, my disclaimers are a LITTLE different and I'd encourage you to read them before diving in.

1. I consider where I would now draft this player if we were to redo a 1QB rookie draft NOW, after a full season is in the books. Since higher picks are SO MUCH MORE VALUABLE, having a guy drop from 1.01 to 1.07 is a much bigger value loss than if a guy drops from 2.12 to 4.05. Also baked into my decisions of who is a riser and faller is how I feel the player looks to fit into future dynasty start up rankings. In some cases, a player ranked #1 and a player ranked #4 could feel miles apart on a rookie ranking, but I very well might consider them just as close (3 spots difference) in a full startup as well!
2. When I try to determine if a player has risen or fallen, I like to weigh what some of the perceptions were on that player's upside, and if any of those perceptions appear to no longer be true or at least need to be tempered.
3. We absolutely need to weigh in what the rookie did with the opportunities (or lack thereof) in their opening season. A huge factor in the final valuation of the 2020 rookies is this question: "What will they be worth before the 2021 season?" - and that question is highly impacted by volume and opportunity (and how they did with it!) in year 1.
4. Just because I have someone as a riser or faller doesn't mean I think you should buy/sell them at bad value. It's the same concept as stocks - if you believe in the fundamentals of the company you invested in, you don't sell off yet. 2020 was a WEIRD year. I expect we will have more "2nd year breakouts" than normal as a result. Similarly, after a stock skyrockets is not usually the best time to buy in - you'd want to wait for a brief regression before that. You should **always** make a value play, not merely selling or buying at cost.
5. Like Matthew Berry has said - just because a guy is on my faller list doesn't mean I like them less than a guy on my riser list. This is just my evaluation of their value relative to where it was before this season. These rankings are an attempt to really lock in where I feel the player will rank on a 2021 Startup draft compared to other rookies.

With that out of the way, let's dive in!

Biggest 2020 Season risers:

​

1. James Robinson. There really can be no answer other than JRob for the biggest riser of the season. In most drafts, he was not taken in the first 5 rounds. And if he was, it was still a VERY late flyer - and we've heard many stories of him being taken and cut and picked up by someone else. Wherever you have James Robinson now - he was virtually nothing more than "a very deep sleeper blip who might take over in a year when Fournette is gone". Well, that takeover happened, and it happened a year early. Robinson won a lot of people money this year, even as he disappeared by season end - because he still got you to the dance. For that reason, Robinson wins the title as the absolute biggest riser of the year.
2. Antonio Gibson. Depending on when you drafted (I drafted earlyish June) Gibson was a late 2nd/early 3rd. Once news started breaking regarding Guice (still makes me yikes when I type his name!) and Peterson was cut, Gibson climbed charts quickly. His profile was that of an extremely talented back with a TINY sample size running the ball. Now that sample size is a bit bigger, and we like what we see. He has all the makings of a guy who could be an RB1 type for the next few years, and big play potential to break open any touch. We're counting on an uptick in passing game usage in 2021, and crossing our fingers for some improvement at the QB position.
3. Jonathan Taylor. How does JT making the biggest riser list when he was already high to start the year? **Perceived startup value**. At this point, JT is a 1st half of the 1st round guy in tons of Dynasty Startups. That's a huge spike from where he was at the start of the year. You're looking at an RB that in many eyes is worth more than **every single WR playing football right now**. I'm not saying that's the precisely correct valuation for a player I embarrassingly was worried about for a few weeks... but it's where he's valued on a lot of charts now. So take it for what it is - Taylor is the single most valuable piece of the 2020 Draft Class.
4. Justin Jefferson. Similar narrative to Taylor - and you could make the case that I should swap these two guys, considering JT was a top 2 pick and JJeff was around 1.08-1.10. Not going to argue that really. Let's just say JJeff vaulted to the top of the WR class with a record-breaking year and is now the clear-cut 1 of a class where he started as the 3 or 4 on most lists. Heck - Jefferson's explosion has impacted the 2021 class valuations (Chase, anyone?) and has easily put him as a Dynasty Startup top 5 WR type.
5. Tee Higgins. This guy was simply not making it as a 1st round pick in a LOT of 1QB rookie drafts. Now he sits pretty comfortably as WR3 or 4, depending on who you ask. A lot of questions we have about Lamb's 2021 production also echo for Higgins - and we desperately want both to be reunited with their gunslingers as soon as possible. But where fears existed of Higgins being a boom-or-bust player, those fears have been silenced. It's boom.

​
Honorable mentions: I would be remiss if I didn't mention the great rookie years of Aiyuk and Claypool - both guys are positioned well to be strong WRs for any roster going forward, and both have upside potential to be even more than the greatness they've already flashed. I'm not sleeping on them. In addition, Herbert had a stellar season and should be looked at as the clear QB1 of the 2020 class.

Biggest 2020 Season fallers:

​

1. Ke'Shawn Vaughn. Look! We're talking about Vaughn again! A guy who was going as early as 1.08 in 1QB now would likely not even be a top 3 round pick. He's the inverse James Robinson. Not much else to say. He did put out a few nice plays here and there, but ended the season as effectively the RB4 on the Bucs. That could change in the offseason though, so if you bought stocks in Vaughn, don't cut bait at this point when there's a chance he heads into 2021 as Tampa's RB2.
2. Jalen Reagor. Depending on who you ask, Reagor was being taken as high as WR3 in the 2020 class. Despite his mediocre final season in college, people were sold on his talent and the barren Eagle's WR room. Instead, Reagor battled injuries, terrible QB play, and even when he did play, he was frequently outshined by... Travis Fulgham and Greg Ward. Don't get me wrong, anyone who has watched a bit of Eagles Football (firstly, pity them!) can tell that Reagor is way more talented than JJAW. But it might not be enough. In a year where so many great players were taken, Reagor feels like a fringe WR2 type at best, going forward.
3. Henry Ruggs. Taken as a back-end Rookie 1st, Ruggs flashed early, got hurt, and then totally fell off the map. Lots to be concerned about here as he rarely looked like anything more than an extremely expensive decoy who needs to catch all 3 of his targets per game to have a chance at a fantasy stat line worth starting. His value is a bit sticky because you can't picture the Raiders giving up on their 1st round draft pick. However, we're now left hoping that something changes in his usage and attention in 2021. Hoping for change is not the position you want to be in for a fantasy asset.
4. Clyde Edwards-Helaire. First, I can't knock CEH's strong job in an otherwise abysmal KC performance in the Super Bowl. He was extremely efficient per touch, and was one of the few bright spots in the game. The problem? Despite averaging almost 8 yards a touch, CEH only managed 11 touches. The early sparks he showed fizzled once Bell was eligible to play, as did his snap share and touch share. As of now, his usage simply isn't trending anywhere that would make him a top 6 pick if we were re-drafting the 2020 class. That's a significant drop, and we've gotta have him on the list as a result. I worry that the 2021 KC offense will use him the same way they used him the second half of the 2020 season. If that's the case, he's a low end RB2/very strong flex/RB3.
5. Bryan Edwards. One of 2020's biggest hype darlings found himself barely playing after getting hurt early. A guy who peaked as going nearly in the 1st round would now likely be a middle 3rd if the class was redrafted. Between Edwards and Ruggs, the Raiders managed to be the only team with two players to show up on the list, and having them both be fallers is not an encouraging sign. My gut tells me ONE of them might turn it around, but even that is a coinflip at this point. As I said in my disclaimer - it's possible a non-Covid year will allow some of these guys to be late bloomers.

How I rank them right now
(in 1QB, but I will include where I would bump the QBs up to in 2QB)
Tier 1, all 3 pretty similar in value for me
01 Jonathan Taylor
02 Justin Jefferson
03 Cam Akers
04 D'Andre Swift
05 Antonio Gibson
Tier 1.5 (not a true break from tier 1, very close in value)
06 JK Dobbins
07 CeeDee Lamb
08 Tee Higgins
09 James Robinson
10 Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Tier 2
11 Brandon Aiyuk
12 Chase Claypool
13 Justin Herbert (1.01 in 2QB/SF)
Tier 3
14 Jerry Jeudy
15 Laviska Shenault
16 AJ Dillon
17 Michael Pittman Jr
18 Denzel Mims
19 Jalen Reagor
Tier 4
20 Darnell Mooney
21 Joe Burrow (1.02-1.05 in 2QB/SF)
22 Tua Tagovailoa (1.03-1.06 in 2QB/SF - but definitely behind Burrow)
23 Henry Ruggs III
24 Gabriel Davis
Tier 5
25 Zach Moss
26 Jalen Hurts (late 1st in 2QB/SF)
27 Bryan Edwards
28 KJ Hamler
29 Lynn Bowden Jr. (but he drops to mid 30's if he loses RB eligibility in 2021... or goes to jail!)
30 Van Jefferson
31 Donovan Peoples-Jones
32 Cole Kmet
Tier 6
33 Devin Duvernay
34 La'Mical Perine
35 Collin Johnson
36 Quintez Cephus
37 Ke'Shawn Vaughn
Tier 7
38 Darrynton Evans
39 Tyler Johnson
40 Harrison Bryant
41 Anthony McFarland Jr
42 Salvon Ahmed
43 Joshua Kelley
44 Deejay Dallas
45 Jordan Love (late 2nd in SF)
46 Antonio Gandy-Golden
47 Albert Okwuegbunam
48 Adam Trautman
Obligatory Kicker Shoutout:
49 Tyler Bass
50 Rodrigo Blankenship
Last words:
Thank you so much for the support and dialogue throughout the year. It's been a joy and blessing to write this and be a distraction from the world while you reply and praise/criticize me shoot-from-the-hip takes. After the NFL draft, I'll be ready to do it all again with the 2021 class. Now to find my way onto a vaccine list...
As always, I'll try to engaged with each and every reply. :)

WEEK 17

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (7-8) @ DENVER BRONCOS (5-10)
SCORE

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	FINAL
	10	0	6	15	31
	3	14	0	15	32

Q1 Scoring:
9:06 - Brandon McManus 22-yard FG
4:34 - Daniel Carlson 33-yard FG
:17 - Troy Fumagalli 1-yard TD rec (Drew Lock pass) [PAT good]
Q2 Scoring:
11:15 - Darren Waller 28-yard TD rec (Derek Carr pass) [PAT good]
:26 - Bryan Edwards 26-yard TD rec (Derek Carr pass) [PAT good]
Q3 Scoring:
11:21 - Brandon McManus 37-yard FG
3:07 - Brandon McManus 26-yard FG
Q4 Scoring:
14:54 - Melvin Gordon 10-yard TD rush [2PC good]
7:27 - Josh Jacobs 28-yard TD rush [PAT good]
6:29 - Jerry Jeudy 92-yard TD rec (Drew Lock pass) [PAT good]
:24 - Josh Jacobs 1-yard TD rush (2PC good)

WEATHEBROADCAST

2:25 MT/3:25 CT/4:25 ET/1:25 ET/9:25 GMT @ Empower Field @ Mile High
Weather: 48f partly cloudy 6 w MPH

• TV: Beth Mowins and Tiki Barber
  
• Local Radio (KOA - 850 AM/94.1 FM & The Fox - 103.5 FM: Dave Logan, Rick Lewis, Susie Wargin)
  

^{KOA link only works on desktop, not mobile.}

INJURY

DEN Injury Report | LV Injury Report
DEN Inactives | LV Inactives

FAST FACTS

From PotRoastBoobs

• Melvin Gordon III is 107 rushing yards away from recording the second 1,000-yard rushing season of his career. His milestone would also represent the fourth consecutive year a Broncos running back has topped 1,000 rushing yards.
  
• With Bradley Chubb and Justin Simmons selection to the 2021 Pro Bowl, John Elway has now drafted, signed or extended 21 players who have combined for 42 Pro Bowl nods.
  
• Justin Simmons is one of five safeties in franchise history to make at least one Pro Bowl and AP All-Pro team during his career.
  
• Brandon McManus needs one 50+yard field goal to set an NFL single-season record for most made 50+yard field goals in a single season.
  

AROUND THE AFC WEST

Team		Opp.	Date	Time/Score
KC		LAC	1/3	11:00a
LAC	@	KC	1/3	11:00a
LV	@	DEN	1/3	2:25

THREAD NOTES

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